Investing Amid Conflicting Signals

In early April, US economic policy announced significant tariffs placed on countries throughout the world with little warning. Then just a few days later, most tariffs were placed on a 90-day hold for all countries except China. Then just a month later the tariffs on China were also paused for 90 days.

Then on May 28, 2025, an international trade court struck down all the tariffs as unlawful, followed hours later by an appeals court pausing that ruling. We have had a lot of conflicting signals with respect to tariffs this year, but that’s not it.

More Conflicting Signals

Since the beginning of the year, consumer sentiment plummeted 30% to one of the lowest levels in over 60 years.[1] You would think that such negativity would result in lots of selling. Not the case.

Surprisingly, since the beginning of the year investors have been buying stocks (over $250 billion in equity ETF).[2]  In fact, even in April when the tariffs were announced, investors were net buyers of stocks.[3] These aren’t the actions of investors who have such sour sentiment. So, what is going on?

Actions Speak Louder than Feelings

This may be because investors are learning that just because we feel a certain way, doesn’t mean we act on those feelings. Warren Buffett said, “People have emotions, but you’ve got to check them at the door when you invest.”[4]

Conflicting signals simply reinforce the need to follow your plan. No matter the signal of the day, nor how conflicting signals may be, the wisest course is to stay grounded in a personalized, consistent plan that is built to last.

– Jonathan