Stock market predictions can be quite alluring. Especially those that are extreme and/or use fear-inducing images. Such predictions can influence our opinions and ultimately our decisions.
For that reason, it is important that we protect ourselves from their subconscious, and potentially damaging, influence.
Characteristics of Believable Predictions
Predictions that are believable do not mean they will be correct. Believable simply means we are likely to believe them to be true. The reality is that there are many more believable predictions than accurate ones. The trifecta of a believable forecast includes:
- Wording that activates concern and/or fear
- Lends credibility to the individual making the prediction (popular individual)
- Provides a specific data point to support the given prediction
What We Should Do
Whenever we read predictions that seem believable, we need to ask ourselves, “What isn’t being said?”
In many cases, the individual making the prediction has made similar predictions for a long time. Often those predictions have been wrong, resulting in a poor track record.
Whenever a prediction is made that gets your attention, it is important to think critically. Ask yourself what isn’t being said. Or better yet, ask me what information might be missing. My preeminent role is to guide you toward your financial goals. This includes ensuring you consider all information, and not just the “believable” prediction of the day.
– Jonathan
CRN202512-3187340